Despite everything, Trump will win.

Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. He will win it despite everything. Despite the climbing American death toll due to the COVID-19, despite his ambivalent response, despite his bizarre musing that injecting disinfectant could act as a cure for the virus, he will win. COVID-19 won’t hurt Trump politically. In fact, it will do just the opposite.

Why? It is simple. Voters, by and large, vote on their emotional whims, not logic. Logic would suggest that Trump has shown himself utterly incapable of bringing the nation together during a crisis. He has politicised the response, irresponsibly calling for the ‘liberation’ of Democrat led states such as Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia. He has repeatedly hinted at opening America up despite medical advice to do the exact opposite.

Yet while many of his actions have been grossly irresponsible, they are also political genius. Why? The people who vote for Trump, and will again, fiercely hold dear that core American value they see as at the heart of the nation: personal liberty. By framing the crisis as a question of rights and not of health and community, Trump has positioned himself as the only American leader willing to stand up for their right to freedom. You can argue that this is dangerous, expedient and irresponsible, but it does not change its political potency.

When Trump announced he was pulling funding from the World Heath Organisation it validated the anger, frustration and suspicion many feel towards not only the world’s peak health body, but global governance in general. This might be difficult for people who hate Trump to understand, but the man is no fool, despite his best efforts to portray himself as such.

Look at the narrative he has sold for years: America is being taken advantage of by rival countries and global institutions, so the answer is to level the playing field and close ourselves off to said leeches. Far from the virus being the end of Trump’s narrative, it merely enhances it. The virus came from America’s geopolitical rival, China. The World Health Organisation’s response has been subject to international criticism. The virus arrived due to increased people movement around the globe. Hence, everything Trump has been saying, rightly or wrongly, can be validated by a virus that came from overseas and was initially spread as a product of globalisation.

Am I saying Trump is right to exploit this narrative? Certainly not. Am I saying that he will? Certainly yes. There is absolutely no doubt that COVID-19 has provided Trump with the political platform to promote his closed borders, protectionist agenda. And he will do it shrewdly and persistently.

And it will work.

It will work because people do not vote with logic, they vote based on feelings. It does not matter whether Trump’s trade war with China has actually made a difference to American workers. It feels like it is right and that he is working for them. It does not matter that Trump has offended nearly every American ally during his first term, because it feels like he is working for America’s interests. It does not matter that Trump can be rude, narcissistic, vain and bellicose, because when he is doing it he is attacking the very people his voters do not like, and it feels good.

On the other side, those who refuse to ever vote for Trump will also vote based on emotional instincts. You could mount a logical argument that unemployment has never been lower for African Americans, for women, or for Latinos in America, but that also does not matter, because, by and large, these demographics feel that Trump is not working for them. It does not matter that prior to COVID-19 the American economy was experiencing sustained growth across nearly all sectors. If you don’t like Trump, you don’t like him. Arguments to the contrary be damned.

Trump will also win because the presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, does not possess enough charisma or inspire enough hope to generate enthusiasm amongst a latent Democrat base. Had Bernie Sanders won the nomination, many progressive voters would have flocked to the polls with an eagerness only matched by that of Trump voters in 2016. Alas, status quo Joe will not inspire enough people to make the journey to the voting booth. Sure, there’s a loud, visceral and determined rump of voters desperate to see the back of Trump, but it will not be enough to swing an election.

So, despite it all, Trump will win. He will win because he is the master of the emotional appeal. He taps into the fears, values and prejudices of those he is directing his message to, and it works.

Call it evil. Call it genius. Call it sinister. Call it whatever you want. You will still be calling Donald Trump ‘Mr President’ at the end of 2020.