Scomo finished? Not when you look at the numbers that matter

It is easy to think that the Morrison government is about to be consigned to history in the coming months. A series of controversies and negative media coverage, much of it unwarranted, is definitely testing the government’s momentum leading into the election.

Twitter activists are delighted when they see every poll showing Labor in front, forgetting what happened in 2019. But the polls do show a trend, and that trend is undoubtedly not what the government wants to see. Yet this election is a long way from over, particularly when you look at the nuances of the electoral map of marginal seats and also consider the hidden story behind several polls.

Look at the list of Coalition and Labor marginal seats below, courtesy of the poll bludger website run by William Bowe (great for political nerds). When you actually look at the seat by seat contest, you will see a few problems presenting for Labor.

The LNP only holds three seats with a margin of less than 3%, compared to Labor’s thirteen. Inevitably, elections are won and lost in the marginals. Federal elections are notoriously close, and it is possible that even if Labor is able to achieve a uniform swing across the country of 3%, achieving a total 2 Party Preferred of 52-48, it may only snatch 3 seats from the government, with no guarantee that it will hold all its own marginals.

John Howard famously won 80 seats in the 1998 election despite losing the 2PP vote 48.9% to the Kim Beazley led Labor’s 51.1%. In fact, Robert Menzies managed to win two elections despite losing the 2PP vote. In 2014, the Labor Party in South Australia managed to sandbag enough marginal seats despite losing the total vote 47% to 53%.

If we consider total seats held with a margin of 5% or less, the Labor party holds 19 of these. The Liberals, 14. Given that election swings are uneven across the country, Labor will be particularly nervous about the Liberals being able to sandbag enough of these marginal seats to hold onto government or at least force a hung parliament. This is why Anthony Albanese is not yet arrogantly strutting around the streets like Bill Shorten was three years earlier. He knows that the seat by seat contest is tighter than the headline polls will have the punters believe. He knows that Labor can indeed win 2PP 53-47 and still face uphill battles in several electorates. If the swings against the government are highly concentrated in Labor held seats already and not where the opposition needs them to be, then Albo has a problem.

Let’s look at a few seats in particular. Labor is particularly nervous about the marginal seats it holds on less than 1% in NSW and Queensland, two states where Morrison is enjoying more support than the rest of the country.

With Andrew Constance, the popular state MP, running in Gilmore (2.9%), I believe the Liberals will gain this seat. I also predict the LNP potentially snatching Macquarie (NSW – 0.2%) and Lilley (QLD – 0.6%).

So let’s say the LNP do pick up these three seats. It brings them to 79. However, there will be losses elsewhere. Western Australia is a looming nightmare for the government. Despite the margins, it will be nervous. It holds Cowan (3%), Pearce (5%) and Hasluck (5.9%). All other seats in WA they enjoy a 10% margin or more. Let’s say it’s the worst case scenario and the government loses all three marginals in WA. It’s back to 76.

I also predict the following losses for the government:

• Chisholm (Vic – 0.4%) – this is the seat held by Gladys Liu. I can’t see the Liberals holding this seat given Victoria’s likely general swing against the government.
• Braddon (Tas – 3.1%) – Tasmanian seats Bass and Braddon are notorious for flipping every election. I am confident that Bridget Archer will hold her seat in Bass, mainly due to her solo advocacy on several issues, but I can’t say the same for Gavin Pearce in Braddon.

Boothby (SA – 1.4%) is another seat that is in danger given Nicolle Flint’s exit. This one will be very tight but let’s give it to Labor.

With the loss of the above three seats, it takes the LNP to 73. Minority government territory. However, Labor would only hold 72, with the other 6 held by independents/greens: Zali Steggall, Adam Bandt (Green), Rebekha Sharkie, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter and Helen Haines.

You will note that I am not factoring in the independents running in safe Liberal seats. That is because I believe that perhaps, best case scenario, they might be able to pick up one seat, but all reports are that this is very unlikely. However, I could be wrong.

So, at this stage, my prediction is a hung parliament, where the government will be haggling with the likes of Steggall, Sharkie, Katter and Haines to give them the seats they need to form government. Given that all these members represent traditional conservative constituents and they saw what happened when Tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott ignored their voters in 2010, one would assume their first instinct will be to pursue something with the government.

The story behind the poll numbers

Newspoll’s latest headline figure of 44-56 to Labor should be taken with a high degree of caution. Why? Because it simply allocates preferences based on previous flows and discounts undecided voters.

When you look at the Guardian Essential poll, you see a different story, and it’s one that the Morrison government is well aware of. The Guardian now publishes 2PP plus, counting undecided voters. These are the voters who don’t really care about politics. They are the opposite to the nutters on Twitter who follow every story religiously.

According to the Guardian, the latest 2PP plus figure is Labor 47%, Liberal 46% and Undecided 8% (don’t ask me why this rounds to 101 but it just does). It is this 8% that decides elections. This 8% will be the voters watching Clive Palmer’s ads, asking their parents who to vote for, making up their mind based on whatever flyer they collect on the way to the polling booth.

And it is these voters that a well researched marketing campaign will target. The left get hysterical whenever they see Morrison’s media stunts. Washing hair or playing a ukulele, they rise up in disgust. Yet these people forget that they are not Morrison’s audience. Morrison cares about the disengaged voter happening to tune into the news to see a dorky, likeable dad doing something novel.

Whether it is right or wrong, it is these people who will have the ultimate say in the marginal seats both parties want to win.

That is why Labor will be nervous, because they know that no matter how much engaged voters might be fed up with Morrison, there are still the wildcard punters who can swing the other way.